Trump claims USA presidency!

Five bold predictions under Trump 2.0:

0) Middle East escalation starting soon, even before Trump becomes president. Regime change in Lebanon is the aim. Iran is in for some big hits. Another front in Syria may be opened against Russia to better negotiate Ukraine.

1) “Show of deportation”: The day Trump becomes president, he will sign deportation of illegal immigrants and stop more immigration. However this will be hardly implemented and only a few tens of thousands will be deported back for a show of sorts. The millions who came in are to be used for cheap manufacturing jobs that will come into US in the coming years as China is hit hard by Trump. 

2) End of Russia-Ukraine war: Trump will end Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine will get a bad deal and it will be blamed on Trump. That doesn’t matter, but the US will end Russia-Ukraine war and using Trump bring Russia back into relationship. Sanctions on Russia will be lifted. Assets unfrozen. Russia may even re-enter G8. The aim to break Russia-China bonhomie.

3) Economic war on China: As relationship with Russia is reset, China will be hit hard by sanctions, tariffs, and trade war. Chinese economy running on over-production and dumping will be hit by taking out apps like Shein and Temu with tariffs and fines. TikTok is over. It will be banned or bought by the US. Not just that, shipping issues and a manufactured recession may be used to destroy Chinese economy if needed.

4) Onshoring of hi-tech manufacturing: US will again become a manufacturing nation. As Trump launches tarrif wars on the World’s hi-tech industry, China’s economy is hit badly, and even Taiwan’s chip industry hit by Trump, manufacturing will come back to the US. They already have illegal immigrants to run these plants and jobs on the cheap. This is why they were let in their millions till now which everyone thought was for vote rigging against republicans. Wrong calculations.

5) US will become the world’s biggest oil producer. Bitcoin will go to $500,000 coming years. Gold will go to $3000 and even $5000 if they bring in the manufactured recession to hit China. Digital dollar will be introduced. XRP may become the default digital swift alternative. US debt will be financed by Cryptos, a CIA project, sold in the world markets sending in dollars for the US. The world order will radically change. China may be forced (or should we say incentivized) to go to war with the chip industry fast leaving Taiwan, and its economy in doldrums creating need to divert attention. By 2028 we can expect a very chaotic world post Trump. But the US shall remain the emperor of chaos.

It is generally expected that result of US Elections will not have much impact on the bilateral relations between USA and India as both USA nd India needs each other due to Geopolitical and strategic reasons.

Regardless of who wins the US election, India is unlikely to feel affected much.

Though, the Indian establishment wouldn’t mind either of Trump or Harris winning the elections but will obviously prefer one over the other.

While the Modi government has already worked with Trump during his tenure as a president in 2017-2021. The Modi government has also worked with Harris as she is currently the vice president of the US. Kamala Harris also has Indian roots with her mother being from Chennai.

Geo-Politics and Global Security: it is very heartening to note that the US has established a robust partnership with India in respect to overall geopolitical concerns, especially with regard to China and Indo-Pacific. Both Trump and Harris consider India as a major Partner to counter China’s rising influence and Power.

Trade: Trump is a strong believer in America First Policy and Protectionism where all Trade decisions are taken keeping in mind Trade and Business interest of USA. Trump had slammed many new tariffs on Indian products during his earlier stint. He had also withdrawn India’s GSP status but tried to negotiate an FTA. On the other hand, Harris has not tried to use Trade Tariffs as a major trade weapon to improve US Trade interests.

Immigration: It is an area where result of US election will have a significant impact. Trump will be more decisive in acting against illegal immigrants and also may reduce H-1B Visa program which is critical for IT Professionals from India.

Climate change: Trump will not really be interested in climate goals and will want India to buy more of US energy whereas Harris will take climate goals more seriously and ensure funding to India for renewable energy.

China: Both Trump as well as Harris will escalate the US-China rivalry but Trump will be more aggressive going by his earlier track record. But Trump will surely want more concessions from India as well in the Trade related Taxes and would want India to act actively in the matter to further American business interest. Trump will also aggressively take a stand against China which will be harsher than Harris in every sphere.

Conclusion: The current relationship between USA and India is deep rooted enough to withstand the turbulence that may arise during the initial period of the new President. Moreover, current Global Geo—political situation makes a strong Indo-US Partnership is a necessity for both the Countries.