The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, is one of the world’s most durable international water-sharing frameworks. It governs the use of six rivers in the Indus Basin.

80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land—about 16 million hectares—relies on water from the Indus system.

In its boldest response yet to cross-border terrorism, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, ending a 64-year-old water-sharing agreement that survived wars, crises, and decades of hostile diplomacy.

The move follows the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 people, including one foreign national. The decision was cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)—the country’s apex body on national security—after investigators uncovered “cross-border linkages” to the attack.

A treaty that lasted through wars…

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, is one of the world’s most durable international water-sharing frameworks. It governs the use of six rivers in the Indus Basin:

— Eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (allocated to India)

— Western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (allocated to Pakistan)

Under the treaty, India received rights over 20% of the system’s water—roughly 33 million acre-feet (MAF) or 41 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually—while Pakistan received 80%, about 135 MAF or 99 bcm. India is allowed limited use of western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like hydropower, but cannot block or significantly alter flows.

Why the suspension is devastating for Pakistan.

For Pakistan, the Indus system is not just vital—it is existential.

— 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land—about 16 million hectares—relies on water from the Indus system.

— 93% of this water is used for irrigation, powering the country’s agricultural backbone.

— The system supports over 237 million people, with Pakistan accounting for 61% of the Indus Basin population.

— Major urban centres—Karachi, Lahore, Multan—draw their water directly from these rivers.

— Hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla also depend on uninterrupted flows.

The system contributes nearly 25% of Pakistan’s GDP and supports crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton. Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, and per capita availability is declining rapidly.

If India cuts off or significantly reduces flows from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, the impact will be immediate and severe.

India’s decision marks a major shift in its approach to Pakistan. While New Delhi has earlier threatened to “revisit” the IWT after previous attacks, this is the first time the treaty has been formally suspended. The timing is deliberate: the move hits Pakistan where it hurts most—agriculture, food, water, and energy security.

Economic Growth and Soft Power

India’s economic ascent has been one of the primary drivers of its increased geopolitical influence. Since the economic liberalization policies of the early 1990s, India has become one of the fastest-growing major economies. This growth has not only improved the standard of living for millions but also enhanced India’s clout in international economic forums such as the G20, World Trade Organization (WTO), and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) group.

India’s booming information technology sector, exemplified by giants like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys, has cemented its reputation as a global IT hub. Additionally, the “Make in India” initiative aims to transform India into a global manufacturing powerhouse, further diversifying its economic base and attracting foreign investment.

Beyond economic metrics, India’s rich cultural heritage, democratic values, and large diaspora have augmented its soft power. Bollywood, yoga, and Indian cuisine have global followings, while the Indian diaspora, especially in Western countries, plays a crucial role in fostering bilateral relations and enhancing India’s global image.

Strategic Partnerships and Regional Influence

India’s strategic partnerships have been pivotal in enhancing its geopolitical stature. The Indo-US relationship has particularly flourished in recent years, driven by shared democratic values and mutual concerns over China’s rise. The landmark civil nuclear deal in 2008 and India’s designation as a Major Defense Partner of the United States underscore the depth of this partnership. The Quad alliance, comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia, further exemplifies India’s role in shaping a free and open Indo-Pacific region.

In its immediate neighborhood, India has pursued a policy of regional integration and stability. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) are platforms where India seeks to enhance regional cooperation. Despite challenges, such as strained relations with Pakistan, India continues to be a stabilizing force in South Asia, promoting economic development and countering terrorism.

India’s Act East Policy reflects its commitment to strengthening ties with Southeast Asian nations. This policy emphasizes economic integration, cultural ties, and strategic partnerships, notably with countries like Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The emphasis on maritime security and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea also aligns with broader international concerns, showcasing India’s role as a responsible stakeholder in regional stability.

Defense Capabilities and Strategic Autonomy

India’s quest for strategic autonomy is reflected in its defense capabilities and procurement strategies. The country has significantly modernized its armed forces, investing in indigenous defense production while also acquiring advanced technologies from global partners. The Agni series of ballistic missiles, the BrahMos cruise missile, and the development of a nuclear triad underscore India’s robust defense posture.

India’s defense partnerships span a wide array of countries, including the United States, Russia, Israel, and France. These relationships are not just about procurement but also technology transfers and joint ventures, exemplified by initiatives like the BrahMos missile project with Russia. Moreover, India’s participation in various military exercises, such as the Malabar naval exercise, highlights its growing role in collective security arrangements.

Multilateralism and Global Governance

India’s approach to global governance underscores its commitment to a multipolar world order. As a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and a strong advocate for its reform, India seeks to play a more significant role in shaping international norms and policies. Its participation in climate change negotiations, peacekeeping missions, and its leadership in the International Solar Alliance (ISA) reflect a proactive stance on global issues.

India’s advocacy for a rules-based international order, especially in the maritime domain, aligns with its strategic interests and global peace and security objectives. The emphasis on international law, freedom of navigation, and open sea lanes in the Indo-Pacific underscores India’s role in upholding global commons.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Despite its impressive growth, India faces several challenges. Regional instability, especially concerning Pakistan and China, requires constant diplomatic and strategic vigilance. Internal issues such as economic inequality, social unrest, and infrastructure deficits also need addressing to sustain long-term growth.

Looking ahead, India’s continued rise in geopolitics will depend on its ability to navigate these challenges while leveraging its economic strengths, strategic partnerships, and soft power. By fostering inclusive development, maintaining strategic autonomy, and playing an active role in global governance, India is poised to be a leading player in the 21st-century geopolitical landscape.